Mount Pleasant Don Thurston

View from the Street

Two thousand and seventeen marks Canada’s One Hundred and Fiftieth Birthday.

As part of the celebration, FDC University at Mount Pleasant’s Faculty of Political Science and Faculty of  Communications are asking citizens to write about their personal Canadian experiences. A panel of journalists and political scientists will select five of the best entries for publication on the FDC website and in the Mount Pleasant Observer.

Canada will be seen through multiple lenses as citizens spin personal tales of a diverse, complicated, irksome and awesome land.

Following is one such story.

My personal Canadian journey began about sixty years ago.

By nineteen sixty  Montreal was my new home. After completing engineering and business degrees  in Ontario and British Columbia, employment in Quebec provided a perfect spectrum of technical, business, cultural and social challenges. My employer was a diversified, multinational company. Corporate headquarters were in New York.  Canadian operations were distributed from coast to coast. Head office was in Montreal.

So the stage was set….. everything was new, exciting, and intimidating.

Imagine the forces at play including professional challenges, differing economic, political and social circumstances plus a new perspective on Canada. Working and playing in two languages added to an already full agenda. Such a steep learning curve.

Sometime into my journey, signs of worsening business conditions appeared.  Within the conglomerate on both sides of the border, accelerating international competition influenced Canadian and American operations alike. In Quebec antiquated facilities, feudal organizational practices and a branch plant mentality interfered with business success.

Political policies of the day encouraged establishing small Canadian operations.  Good for nationalism but not good in the face of changing international landscapes in which size mattered.

Personally my life in Quebec, particularly Montreal, could not have been more fulfilling.

To be sure the well-known French-English divide influenced every nook and cranny. Anglo domination in commercial enterprises aggravated an already difficult environment.  Long standing norms were not changing at a pace commensurate with the rest of Canada nor around the world. With the full benefit of hindsight these issues festered, only to erupt several years later as nationalistic fervor took a nasty turn.

Expo 67, as a festival, mesmerized Quebec, Canada and the world. In retrospect the celebration was a diversion away from escalating  social, political and economic problems.

We all know what happened next.   Altering circumstances  accelerated with the emergence of the Parti Quebecois, the FLQ events, the separation referendums, the migration of financial institutions, wealth transfers and citizens with long term roots leaving Quebec. What a dismal era for all.  I left as well.

Canadians had little appreciation for the difficulties facing Quebec, and soon to threaten  the country’s very existence. Charles de Gaulle ignited decades  of turbulence on July 24, 1967 by shouting for all to hear “Vive le  Quebec Libre”.  This single proclamation was the catalyst for what was to follow Changes  were no longer optional. All that remained was their extent and what they were going to be.

Well many happened and continue to do so.

 Have a look in this one hundred and fiftieth year since Confederation. Now new buildings, refurbished old ones, street side eateries, parks, new and old, looking fresh and user friendly. Construction cranes dominate the skylines  More subtle are the attitudes. Highways and byways over flow as individuals and crowds exude senses of belonging and inclusion. Quoting a friend who accompanied me on this journey “The road has been long. I am heartened that with reconciliation we now have a day when we can say wow I never sthought this was possible”.

 My tale is not based on learned research. Sometimes one has to go with observations and feelings, eschewing essays concerning the state of the nation and speculation about the future, good or bad.   All the evidence is anecdotal, pointing to a city and province now content in their own skins.

More than anything this has been – and remains a personal journey,  moving from concern to alarm to shock to despair to optimism and now to gratification that much has changed for everyone’s benefit.

 The Canadian Confederation remains a work in progress—so far so good

Don Thurston Blog

Perhaps energy issues are about more than name calling and finger pointing

Energy generation has an interesting and telling history; interesting because of a twisted path, telling because within this history are the reasons for today’s issues.

For example waxy materials used for lighting were odoriferous and toxic. As scribes laboroued over their parchment, products of combustion contaminated their surroundings. The Inuit knew a better way: whale and seal oil worked very well in enclosed settings, supplying ample heat and light to meet their uncomplicated needs. There is no evidence that Martin Frobisher transferred this technology to Europe after exploring Eastern Baffin Island. Nevertheless Europeans adopted whale oil holous bolas as a major source of light.  This was bad news for whales.  Centuries of harvesting diminished the population almost to extinction in oceans everywhere.

During the middle of the eighteen hundreds petroleum began a long and storied journey.  A primitive distillation process yielded a low volatility product suitable for lighting-kerosene, soon to be a substitute for whale oil. Harvesting whales was becoming more and more problematic as supply diminished. Coincidentally the United States Government of the day needed more and more resources to finance the Civil War. What better source than taxing whale oil?  Prices rose, both for oil and in sympathy, kerosene; perhaps the first but not the last government intervention to benefit the fossil fuel industries.

Coal was and remains a major energy player, reaching domination by fueling the industrial revolution. Included were heating ferrous ores for iron and steel metal production, generating steam for engines and lighting systems by  the production of coal gas, piped under cities to homes and street lights.

Engines, both internal combustion and electrical soon emerged, along with the electric generator. The exploitation of a much- improved steam engine evolved earlier, forever a testimony  to Watt’s creativity. Paradoxically the full potential of these inventions coalesced in the same era, all after many decades of development. Diesel, Tesla, Westinghouse, and Siemens are household names as a result.  In the blink of an eye manual labor and horses became much less important.

Returning to petroleum; producing kerosene generated a more volatile concoction and with further modification morphed into gasoline. At that time this by product was dangerous and likely not much more than a nuisance. Fortunately the internal combustion engine was lurking on the inventor’s desk. This and Henry Ford’s determination started what we now know as the most -friendly innovation of all time.

Meanwhile lighting innovations of another kind were underway as the incandescent bulb emerged and Thomas Edison extend ending his long creative history.  Lighting was a fraction of the impact of energy generation from the coal-boiler-steam-electric generator-electric motor quintet.

So the stage was set; in very short order we have a huge uptake of coal, oil and natural gas powering internal combustion engines, electric motors, and turbines and heating systems. These now combine to do a great deal of the worlds work and provide most of the lighting to watch them perform.

While fossil fuel producers occupy the same energy space there is fierce competition among the thousands of oil, natural gas and coal companies all the way from exploration, exploitation, refining, transportation and marketing. Consumers have benefited accordingly.

The business has done a marvelous job of fueling economic growth of gargantuan proportions to such an extent that alternate sources have great difficulty in gaining a foothold.  Convenience, supply, efficiency, quality and cost have combined to do a wonderful task.  Alternates are hydro and nuclear.  Hydro needs elevation changes and water supply combined; virtues not all that common throughout the world. Nuclear has significant barriers to entry, some financial some technical and others social.

Many aspects have not changed over one hundred years. Consumers still fill up at gasoline pumps, coal is still  shipped over long distances before  introduction  into boilers, and we pipe natural gas into furnaces. We still harvest and ship the stuff, albeit in much more efficient ways and then break the carbon-hydrogen bond at generating stations and in internal combustion engines. By comparison, witness the lack of innovation as opposed to the way we communicate. The latter has gone from drums, smoke and flags to digital signals allowing worldwide connectivity…cheaply.

Industrial processes everywhere prosper, in part by using the planet as a convenient disposal medium. Rivers, oceans and land have been low cost receptors from the start. Now we are discovering that these habits include employing the atmosphere as an air- borne effluent collector is at the very least, a questionable practice, at the very worst, fatal. Compounding the problem, gaseous products tend to stay around for very long periods of time as well and disperse very slowly.

Awareness of the amount of man-made substances entering the water systems and solids in the ground has precipitated many disputes. As to gaseous materials in the atmosphere, consternation is the order of the day. The consequences are widely debated, made difficult by the systems under study. They are effected by many variables, other than those resulting from human involvement.  Under these circumstances the possibility of absolute determination remains out of reach. As a minimum we know that land- based eco-systems have been severely influenced by solid and liquid by products ; extending this to air born goop into  the atmosphere is not much of a stretch.

Energy is fundamental to economic development. Aiding and abetting the fossil fuel industry is one tool for promoting industrial  development. The Tennessee Valley Authority was created during the 1930s depression years to stimulate a flagging economy. Governments supported all manner of projects, many of them for power generation. Equipment suppliers benefited hugely as did power consumers. The Interstate Highway System project was a direct result of highway building in the United States to provide much needed transportation and hence aid industrial growth. Auto manufacturers were strong advocates; the oil and gas producers were beneficiaries. Electrification  in rural areas throughout North America, supported by government funding,  was a boon to the agricultural industry and of course  to the fossil fuel industry

Recapping: Fossil fuels dominate because the industry supplies a cheap, reliable, convenient way to fill our energy needs. Economies rely on the stuff to sustain and promote growth. Political influences applied  directly and indirectly constantly interrupt market forces.  Antiquated delivery systems have changed little over many years. The processes are hazardous. Environmental concerns are gaining traction. The industry is well and truly global, therefore addressing issues requires global participation.

No tale of science fiction could do justice to the past twelve decades of industrialization fueled by carbon- based energy  Tales of energy are ubiquitous because most plane Earth residents are up front and personal with related issues on a daily basis. Calling upon simple solutions  to solve  hugely-complex problems begs the question.  The question before the house is more properly”How can, if ever, one or more  energy -supply systems emerge that will compete head to head with the fossil fuel  based systems now in place”?

Among many systems, electrification is attracting major investment dollars. Every part  from generation, to transmission, to storage, to application are under-going change. Outcomes of lower cost, increased efficiencies, convenience, and expanded access are reasonable expectations.

Stand by as the next chapters unfold in this saga. Approaching is a world when  consumers will have choices about the types and sources of energy to suit their needs.

While analogies have limitations, imagine a world of a single transportation system, say the automobile…no trains, no planes, no buses, no rapid transit, no motorcycles, no bicycles, no skate boards, and so on and so forth. Worse, we would not have the joy of watching John Candy and Steve Martin careen their way through Trains, Planes and Automobiles.

 

Don Thurston Blog

The honey bee and the clover farmer; a fable

Decades ago in a distant land, a farmer searched for crop diversification.  A close relative suggested clover production.  In particular he recommended growing clover with four leaves which would garner superior prices because of the good fortune they brought.  Such a venture would surely be profitable thought the farmer.

In spite of the farmer’s best efforts, bountiful crops were fleeting and four leaf clover production was particularly limited. Khthonioian efforts improved the harvest only slightly; the project languished as a result.

As was his custom, the farmer frequented a regional market, buying locally grown vegetables, fresh meat, dairy products and breads.  Luxury items were sometimes included such as pickles, jams and honey. Honey was a particular favorite, often in short supply.

By happenstance the farmer fell into a conversation with one of the very few talking bees in the area. After exchanging pleasantries he mentioned to his new friend the dilemma about low clover productivity. After a brief deliberation, the bee said the problem was likely the shortage of his brethren, thereby limiting pollinating, necessary for clover reproduction

Presently, an entrepreneurial bee keeper recognized local honey and bee’s wax shortages and soon built an apiary adjoining the clover patch. Bees proliferated; harvests of clover and those with four leaves increased; honey and bee’s wax production sky rocketed. The bee was delighted with an influx of new friends.

Increased usage and reduced productivity of the clover patch necessitated adding fertilizer. Not a problem, the farmer was able to buy manure from a local dairy.

An unintended consequence of spreading manure was odors cascading throughout the neighborhood, causing neighbors to be more than a little annoyed

A citizen’s review committee summarized the situation. The clover-honey combination benefited the honey producer, the clover grower and the bees.  However the clover-honey-manure-dairy farmer quartet inflicted major negative influences on neighbors. They gained nothing directly from the commercial enterprises but suffered the consequences of living in close proximity to the clover farm.

Government officials were ambivalent.  Benefits accrued to the producers. Employment opportunities increased; business and personal tax revenues went up. On the other hand residents in the local and regional areas had very legitimate objections.   Disadvantages accrued from air pollution, associated health risks, reduced property values and a lessened quality of life. Throughout, voters were clamoring for remedial action.

A proposal under consideration- the clover farmer assume some responsibility for his actions burdensome to those living in proximity of the clover fields. Implementing a manure odor tax gained some traction. Actions of this nature could cause the farmer to reduce noxious emissions. Proceeds would be applied to discovering manure odor reduction methods and alternate ways of fertilization.

Some committee members are certain that draconian actions of this nature would force businesses to relocate. Nearby districts hunger for new businesses, offering all manner of enticements including a friendly tax regime.

Supporting industry members echoed such a view.  A spokesperson from The Manure Spreaders Association (TMSA) quoted “Our members are already suffering from the encroachment of synthetic fertilizers”. Honey producers are encountering similar problems as artificial sweeteners take a bigger market share. Added taxes and more stringent regulations would most certainly be unwarranted burdens. A prominent executive and opponent of any measures influencing agriculture profitability has suggested that such taxes are an excuse for governments to increase revenues.

Conversations continue.

EDITOR’S NOTE
Politicians, the electorate and industries of the day can take some solace. Debates about similar situations are emerging.   A current hot button:  coal fired power plants, while owners benefit, effluents are harmful far and wide.

Don Thurston Blog

The little old woman who lived in a shoe, a tale of impact investing

There was an old woman who lived in a shoe

She had so many children, she did not know what to do

She gave them broth without any bread

Then whipped them all soundly and put them to bed

The little old woman’s name was Grace Sandal. Her extended family was embarrassed by such living arrangements and deemed it totally unacceptable. The child abuse compounded the problem, threatening the Sandal name and inviting legal intervention.

Relatives agreed that something needed to be done to help her find new directions. They knew her as an industrious well-meaning person, but somewhat misguided.

Grace’s cousin Clarence Sandal was asked to approach Grace for a conversation concerning a possible life-style change and if so what resources would be required.  He was  selected because of his well-known negotiating skills, the warmth of his personality, a deep commitment to his fellow citizens and his reputation as a successful business person.

Clarence called on Grace. He cited her behavior as inappropriate, both as to her housing and unseemly, if not illegal, disciplinary habits.  Much to his pleasant surprise  Grace listened carefully, welcoming the observations demonstrating considerable emotion at the same time.  Tearfully she told a tale of living uncomfortably on a very limited income. Her children were frequently a source of frustration and as such, sometimes received a whipping.

Clarence had an inclination to assist Grace. In his capacity as a senior executive of a major shoe manufacturer, he had helped his company craft an impact investing strategy.

He correctly surmised that the three essential ingredients for such an enterprise were present in this case.  The community was in need of low-cost housing: Clarence could supply the funding and Grace could manage the enterprise.

To make a long story short these three ingredients coalesced into a very successful social enterprise including filling a housing need, providing a return for the company and giving Grace a whole new career.

Now the little old woman manages low-cost homes for large families with many children. No whipping allowed.

Don Thurston Blog

If you have fresh water supply problems and no water department, who do you call?

“Would you tell me please which way I should go from here?” asked Alice. “That depends a great deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat. “I don’t much care,” said Alice. “Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat. “So long as I get somewhere,” Alice added as an explanation. “Oh you are sure to do that,” said the Cat, “as long as you walk long enough”.

This quintessential Lewis Carol excerpt is often paraphrased to “If you do not know your destination then it does not matter how you get there”.

A good example is the well-intended objective of providing fresh water to communities in Malawi by drilling and equipping water wells; laudable certainly, but limited in scope and outcomes. A water well alone does not a water department make. For sure a source is vital. However by itself a source does not mean reliable potable water delivery. Much more is needed to construct a sustainable supply including well locations, repair, planned maintenance, spare parts, transportation and trained personnel.

Now we have a job for a systems designer and builder. Wonder of wonders, on the job was a Canadian organization, Engineers Without Borders. This group of human development pioneers identified a major deficiency: not establishing the destination first and then starting the journey.

The water department destination defines the outcome; building the components are the tasks. Technology stepped in by providing terrestrial location methods. Now existing wells can be located and new ones positioned. Following close behind is monitoring the life cycle of hand pumps, wells and boreholes, training community members, provision of spare parts and building partnerships. Two water organizations have invested to scale up the program. Upon completion, EWB will have mapped over a third of all water points in Malawi.

The Malawian Water Department, Alice and EWB now have the potential for a mutual outcome. If Alice asks where to drill a water well, the Cat may well answer, “That depends a great deal on what she wants to achieve”; if she asks the Cat how to create a sustainable water supply for all Malwians, the Cat may well answer, “Build all the elements that constitute a water department”.

Ask Engineers Without Borders and their Malawian partners to give you a hand.

Don Thurston Blog

If Bolivia was once called the tin roof of the world what could it be called now?

How about the lithium basement of the world?

The story of tin is a very long one that reaches far back into antiquity. Bronze is an amalgam of tin and copper; pewter is an amalgam of copper, antimony, sometimes silver and historically lead. Lead is now not included because of health risks. Stories of lead poisoning because of the pewter alloy are captured when the privileged use it for flat ware and mugs. A brief use in dental amalgams had the same effect.

Presently about fifty percent of the world’s tin production is used in making solder. A substantial part of the remainder coats other metals to prevent corrosion, hence we have tin cans. Sadly tin foil had a brief romance with packaging only to be replaced by aluminum. This product does not transfer any taste contamination and can be rolled into a finer material.  So why do we still call this aluminum product tin foil?

The production of tin is generally quite messy, involving the placer mining.  This includes blasting the tin containing ore with high pressure water jets followed by gravity separation and refining.

Bolivia once occupied an enviable position in tin production. Early social studies text books referred to Bolivia as the tin roof  of the world. Production remains, now substantially reduced in the world’s ranking.

Once the world’s tin roof, Bolivia is in a position to become the lithium basement. The country has a vast supply contained in acres of salt flats. Unless you missed it, this metal is a fundamental component in batteries needed to power all the electronic gizmos of today. Now electric cars are seen by some as the future in automotive transportation. If so lithium batteries have a great future,

Bolivian politicians can now visualize another chance. Earlier it was tin, now it is lithium. This time they want much greater benefits to flow to their country, in particular the production of batteries.

The scenarios are now unfolding. Watch for the debates, the posturing and the economic analyses that go with public versus private ownership, regulations requiring extension into value add products and net benefits toBolivia.  Perhaps all that is necessary is to insert tin into any commodity exploitation debate, oil for example.

Chocolate & Marijuana

Chocolate and Marijuana have a Lot in Common

 

Mutt and Jeff, salt and pepper, black and white, hot and cold, slow and fast, all well known relationships.  How about chocolate and marijuana?

To start both have a very long history. There is ample evidence that marijuana was in use in several forms twenty-five hundred years ago. Chocolate originated in Mesoamerica and has been a much-appreciated drink for at least two thousand years. They are both vegetables and now widely cultivated.

Both have addictive qualities. The caffeine in chocolate is habit forming. The debate rages as to marijuana and just how addictive it is. Seemingly it is called the gateway drug for some reason. Folklore tells us that marijuana  is sometimes  ingested by mixing with brownies. Now that is a synergistic relationship.

Marijuana is now dispensed  through vending machines. Who has not bought a chocolate bar in the same way? To be fair the marijuana comes from machines that are very high tech and for pharmaceutical use particularly.

Turning our attention to Smith Falls, Ontario, this is when the plot really thickens. The story starts in 1960 or so when Smith Falls was searching for badly needed industries to stimulate a sagging economy. Business activity was shrinking as the economic drivers of earlier days were in secular decline. Voila, along came Hershey. The chocolate producer wanted a Canadian location complete with water, dairy products, an ample and willing work force. Smith Falls was ideal.  For many years this city  was the chocolate capital of Canada. Eventually the corporate strategies of Hershey changed.  A closure was in the wings  hastened by an outbreak of bacteria in the production equipment.

The politics of marijuana consumption were changing all the while,  so much so, use  became acceptable for medicinal purposes. Sanctioned growing operations were badly needed.

Imagine finding an empty chocolate processing factory  in an agricultural locale with ample water,  a sympathetic power supplier, an abandoned plant  already on location and a motivated work force. Perfect for a grow op.  Likely no more than a Google search but suddenly Smith Falls is back on the map. Turns out that weed and chocolate have a great deal in common.

Never, never underestimate the creativity of the Canadian business person.

 

 

Manchester England

53.4667 degrees north, 2.2333 degrees west vs 51.0500 degrees north, 114.0667 degrees west

The city was the wonder of the modern world; a nexus of innovation and commerce; a place that drew engineers, inventors, business people, workers, social commentators, politicians, writers and visitors from all over the world.

The city attracted fortune hunters and financiers.

The city was fascinating because everything about the place was new. It grew from a small town to a world city in a few decades and rapidly built the social infrastructure of a modern city to support its astonishingly successful commercial base.

The city  became the prototype modern city in which half the population derived much of their income from a single source.

The region also developed a highly talented work force. Skilled engineering was crucial. The improved transport infrastructure enabled people to travel easily in search of work, to recruit business partners, to build a quality life style, to obtain the necessary materials and build the required facilities. **

53.4667 degrees north, 2.2333 degrees west and 51.0500 degrees north and 114.0067 degrees west are the geographical coordinates of two cities with similar evolutionary characteristics. Their populations grew quickly both in numbers and  diversity. Their economic, social and cultural evolution have many similar  characteristics. Their growth rate inflicted many like problems.

53.4667 north, 2.233 degrees west is the location of Manchester, U K  which flourished for many decades beginning in the early seventeen hundreds. The economic driver was the cotton industry. 51.0550 north, 114.0067, west is the location of Calgary, Alberta, now undergoing a very similar transition, beginning in the 1940s. The economic driver in this case is fossil fuels.

The major difference is three centuries.

**  Osborne, Roger; Iron, Steam and Money; Random House 2013 pages 215-225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What is not the same are the time lines; differing by three hundred years. One is Manchester in the U K and the second is Calgary, Canada. The Manchester driver was cotton, the Calgary driver is fossil fuels.

As always there is very little new under the sun.

We an thank —–

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Behold, the Humble Sewing Machine

Speeding technology has taken us by the throat. Reluctantly and unknowingly we have come to expect accelerating changes as panaceas for problem solving. Some measure of technology literacy helps in reducing a sense of victimization and inadequacy. Using the sewing machine as an analog for technology change brings the issue closer to home.

For a start, the earliest versions were the subject of patent disputes. The battles raged on for many years as one inventor after another claimed exclusivity of patent protection. In and of themselves these battles testify to the potential of mechanized sewing. Singer machines came to dominate the industry more because of Isaac Singer’s marketing skills than his technical skills. Among other innovations Singer sold his machines on installments, unheard of at the time.  As we well know, IBM and the auto companies have echoed these strategies!

A domestic market was developing for sewing machines. Dry good stores everywhere sold bolts of cloth to householders who were sewing for their themselves and their families. Readymade clothing was available but only for the wealthy. Technology ramped up. Soon the ubiquitous Singer treadmill machine was a common feature in many homes everywhere

As electrification spread the treadmill gave way to the electric motor. Now we are talking of a much more efficient appliance. The motor lead to a compact and portable machine that no longer took up a prominent place in the parlors around the world. The semi conductor and the micro chip were game changers. Now electronics replace the electro mechanical devices. Computers soon followed, allowing for a cascading of attachments with computer control to make sewing more versatile and user friendly.

Overcoming  intimidation by technology is simple. A person using today’s sewing machine imagines  flying a 747; the technology is very similar. The same acceleration in applying scientific principles has worked for both. From the invention of the wheel to the first mechanical sewing machine took centuries. From Bernouli’s discovery of his principle to the first powered flight took 3 centuries. In a matter of decades after these first innovations, the sewing machine was controlled by computers and we had 747s!

Demographictus Interruptus

The study of population trends is enjoying a heyday. No news’s day goes by without a demographer noting the baby boom, population declines in Eastern Europe, health care, the aging population, immigration patterns around the world and so on.

One constant in many forecasts relies on the concept that a body in motion stays in motion until something stops it. Demographics are no different. For example if one was looking at population trends in 1900, the outlook seemed stable and predictions could be made with some certainty.  The British Empire remained robust, large families were the norm and migration to the new world’s frontiers continued apace. So what happened? By 1914 one of the most devastating conflicts in history killed millions only to be followed by a flu epidemic of cataclysmic proportions. Economic patterns were quickly changing including the decline of the British Empire.   An entire generation was severely effected by these events.

The 1920s was a wonderful decade of enthusiasm and the demographers had another platform of stability to work from only to be side swiped by the Great Depression.  Subsequently World War II caused the greatest tragedy to world population since the Black Plague.

By the end of the Second World War fifteen years had passed with both very low levels of consumption and the accumulation of wealth with little to buy. Money, supply and optimism combined to unleash family formation and the on slot of the baby boom.

Now consider another surprising set of events. Birth rates entered another decline  most likely due to  birth control, smaller and later families, life style choices, family costs and social norms. This time birth rates dropped as a result of personal choices, not wars, disease or natural disasters.

The art and science of demographics are not the problem. The discipline applies the best knowledge possible all the while assuming that a body in motion will stay in motion more or less. Excessive  reliance on this concept from physics is when trouble can ensue.  Forecasts are just that; users  beware.